May 14, 2023

Eye of the Storm Podcast – Big Picture Update 5/14/2023 by Michael Filighera

Today I update the big picture for the SPX, NDX, Treasuries, Gold & Silver + the US Dollar Index.

The SPX and NDX remain in the process of completing Primary B wave countertrend rallies, within the larger move both indexes continue higher to complete Minor 5th waves and in turn Intermediate C waves.  The larger wave count also continues to suggest that Primary degree C waves down will begin soon.  Initial projections call for a move to 2800 to 3000 in the SPX and 8445f to 10400 in the NDX. I also include the Elliott and Fibonacci measurements for the balance of Minor 5th waves and Intermediate “C” waves.

The 30 year bond also sits in a position of confusion with the market here seeing a strong increase in intraday volatility.  This is producing larger swings in both directions. Overall though, the 30 year bond remains within the current EW count which suggests a quick drop in bond prices and upward surge in yields before the next sustained and stronger bond price rally / yield decline begins.

The 2 year note is working thru an Intermediate B wave – with Minor wave A completing at 104’112 and Minor B still in process with projected support down at 102’265, 102’148, and 102’065.  Once complete look for a Minor C wave rally to bring the 2 year note back towards 105’300 to 107’012.

Gold/Silver – both continue to carry strong upside potential as discussed – near term volatility likely to remain high which has been producing strong swings in both directions.

U.S. Dollar Index – remains as confused as the other markets — the wave pattern continues to favor a rally to bring the dollar up towards 105 to 106 to complete a Minor b wave countertrend rally.  Longer term then, a Minor C wave down would then be expected to take the dollar below 100 and down towards the 96 to 95 range.