Friday’s trade was on one level very disappointing and on another level very revealing. I have again taken a step back to look more closely as to the current and alternate views for the NQ. I have switched the labelling around to look more closely towards each alternate view that carries a stronger probability of being in force. So, let me recap what I do feel remains in place. The NQ remains in the process of tracing out a Minor wave 5 advance that began off of the July 19th low at 14445. Within Minor wave 5, I have counted as complete minute waves 1 and 2, 3, and 4. The current advance which took over off of the July 29th low at 14811 is what is giving me cause to pause. I have discussed previously the potential for the final minute wave 5 up to form a diagonal triangle and wedge itself higher. If this is the case it would suggest that Friday’s high at 15172.50 complete subminute wave 1, with the current decline being part of a subminute wave 2 correction. This view fits cleaner as the market continued lower breaking below the hourly 200 MA. The correction has continued support below at 14990 to 14947 and then 14922 to 14915. The NQ does have a do not break point below at 14811. A break there would suggest an alternate view is in force, which suggests the minute wave 4 correction is still unfolding. The high at 15172 would then be the completion point for wave ‘b’ of 4. This would also suggest a slide lower breaking the low of wave ‘a’ at 14774 and into support at 14721 to 14667 to complete minute 4. Both alternate views have equal probabilities of being in force. Ultimately though, either alternate view would continue to suggest an additional powerful rally to new highs remains in the near term picture for the NQ.
August 9, 2021