August 18, 2021

Elliott Wave Update – NQ – August 18, 2021

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Wednesday’s trade did begin to clear up the Elliott count as well as giving strong signals that a trend change is at hand.  First I have updated the count to reflect what I believe the market is telling us.  It appears that the minute wave 5, which I believed was subdividing finishing wave 1 at Monday’s closing high at 15139.  However, the break below 14917 and then 14897 has basically negated the upside count and gives strong support to the larger advancing sequences being complete at Monday’s 15139 high.  This also suggests that minute wave 5 ended in a failure as it did not take out the high of wave 3 at 15172.50.  I have updated the labelling to reflect this count.  So, if the highs are in what is the path?  The decline that began off of the 15139 high would be labelled as waves 1 and 2 of the initial 5 waves down are complete with wave 3 being in progress off of today’s 15037 high.  At the start of Globex the NQ is getting a bounce off the 14806 low after NVDA report better than expected earnings.  I do think it is just a bounce and not the start of a stronger sequence up.  If wave 3 is to continue lower – the next support comes in at 14795 and 14738 to 14702 and then 14646 to 14625 and it is this last zone that I believe will complete wave 3 and set the stage for a stronger bounce higher.