Wednesday’s trade was a strange roller coaster ride that either made you a nice amount of cash or lost you a bad amount of cash — or possibly both. What started out as a continuation of an upside move which produced a $45 rally in the ES. It was impressive and if traded correctly very handsomely rewarded. That was the first uphill ride, which was followed by a smaller but powerful $27 downhill ride also providing solid rewards to traders. Then came the FED meeting results and that was similar to riding the Cyclone as it whipped the ES up $31 and then back down $38. The 15 minute chart for the ES does begin to suggest that the market may be forming a triangle patter off of the afternoon high at 4406. The out come of the triangle would be a thrust higher which would thrust the width of the triangle or about $38. What does this do for the overall count at the moment. Not much but it does gives us the potential for a last bounce higher to complete the Minor wave 4 correction. If that move doesn’t materialize I would still consider the Minor 4 wave complete at a “new” high or the current high at 4406. I can’t rule out the potential for the market to continue to run higher and break above 4427 which is the end point for Minor wave 1, which leaves this level as the “no break zone”. A break above would negate the current pattern and leave it as 3 waves down from the high at 4549.50. Right now though I’m continuing to view the ES as being in the finishing moves of a Minor wave 4 correction, with a Minor wave 5 decline still to come.
September 22, 2021