Monday’s trade did not move higher and above Friday’s 4367 high, but the ES did begin to accelerate to the downside. This allowed for Friday’s 4367 high being the completion point for the Minor wave 2 bounce. However, having said that I need to add that at this juncture it would be very easy to “rush” the count and mark a 5 wave decline off of 4367 as the completion of Minor wave 3. It is not the completion but only the first leg down of an extended Minor wave 3. Minor 3 continues to carry a high probability of additional and likely stronger downside acceleration. Included with tonight’s update are support levels to complete Minor wave 3 as well as the potential for Minor wave 2 to still be in force with the rally up to 4367 being wave ‘A’ of 2 and today’s decline being wave ‘B’ of 2. If this is the case the rally should carry the ES back towards the hourly 200 MA which is currently at 4366. A break below 4360 though would negate the possibility and leave 4367 as the completion point for Minor wave 2. Ultimately I am continuing to look for Minor wave 3 to drop the ES to support at 4025 to 3945.
October 4, 2021