Friday’s trade was more range bound and put in an early attempt at mounting a challenge to Thursday’s 4421.50 high. Once the failure was evident the market put a pin in it and traded lower into the afternoon and then moved in a tighter range for the balance of session. Globex initially again tried to mount a rally but again failed. This is giving support to Thursday’s high as being the completion point for the Minor wave 2 correction. Suggesting the ES is again in the beginning stages of a 3 of 3 move — this one being of a Minor degree into an Intermediate degree, which does translate into larger moves with stronger acceleration to the downside. Next important level that would need to hold if an upside threat is to exist for now would be 4365 which is where the hourly 200 MA is currently. A break and then a close below this MA would/should seal the deal on the top of Minor wave 2 being complete. The larger Minor wave 3 decline should unfold over a couple of days. I have run the extensions for the Minor 3rd wave. Ultimately, I’m looking for Minor 3 to reach 4208 without much hesitation and then continue lower with support at 4158 to 4058 being in play.
October 10, 2021