Friday’s trade continued to hit the ES hard with the market dropping below levels which negated upside for now. The market reached Fibonacci support at 4140 which would allow for a completion point for a small wave IV correction. The problem is while the Elliott count remains valid the move itself is pushing against being too large. But at this point we still need to the market to tell us what its intentions are. If Friday’s closing low at 4140 completed the small wave IV correction we would need confirmation by the ES heading higher again and doing it without much pause or hesitation. Expectations would be for the ES to begin breaking above resistance at 4150, 4160, 4175 and ultimately 4195 to 4200. If the decline has more to go initial expectations would for next support at 4130 to 4119 to hold. A break below 4100 begins to point to a different view which includes the highs completing the minor wave 5, intermediate wave 5 and Primary wave 3 at the 4158 high. If this is the case – a move below 4100 and on down to 4000 would be expected as the ES builds on the initial 5 waves down on the hourly chart. Should this occur it would give strong support to the advance being complete for now.
June 21, 2021