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Elliott Wave Update – ES – July 29, 2021

Thursday’s trade was awesome the first hour, slow and thick for the next 4 hours and smashed lower after the close.  AMZN reported earnings of $111 billion for the 2nd quarter, which blew Google’s numbers out the door, but the forward guidance for 3rd quarter was $113 billion vs. $118 estimated.  Well that tossed everyone’s cookies with the stock dropping over $100 immediately. As I write this update the stock is now down $245 from the close.  The ES is trading at 4397 which still leaves it positive for day, but before Globex starts. Ok, so what does all of this suggest for the current Elliott count and tomorrow’s trade?  Actually it doesn’t change anything.  It appears that the ES remains in a Minor 4th wave correction where waves ‘A’ and ‘B’ are complete.  Therefore I am still looking for a ‘C’ wave down which was delayed until the close.  Initially the ES rallied strongly reaching new highs at 4422.50. Once that was completed the ES basically sat in a range under lite volume.  As I write this update the market is breaking below the 200 MA on the short time frame charts but is managing to hold above the hourly 200 MA which is at 4375.  Also of note, the Daily 8 MA is at 4380 with the market sitting just above it.  A break below that level would turn the Daily chart negative along with the hourly.  That does bode well for the ‘C’ picking up some additional steam and heading lower.  First support to complete the move remains at 4370.  But remember, structure rules over price in that I am looking for a 5 wave structure down.  Therefore, I would be looking for a slide into support levels starting at 4357, 4349 and then 4337.  With the intensity rising significantly be careful to follow your moving averages for entry and exit levels.  The decline will likely be swift and hard, but so will the bounces. So keep an eye on the moving averages.  Ultimately, unless a break below 4279 happens additional upside and new highs would remain in the near term picture.


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