Tuesday’s trade gave much needed information in terms of direction and the Elliott wave count. The ES sold off somewhat on Tuesday, which did provide the end point for Minor wave 3 at yesterday’s high at 4316 and set the stage for a Minor wave 4 correction. Minor wave 4 though does appear complete at today’s low of 4364.75 with a 30 point rally being the start of Minor wave 5, which if in force will carry the ES back above 4416 and likely towards the next Fibonacci resistance at 4507. What could postpone or negate the move would be a continued slide dropping the ES below 4343 and then 4334. This would likely put an end point for all the advancing sequences at 4416 and strongly suggest the ES is within the beginning stages of a Supercycle wave 4 correction. So, for tomorrow the ES has its work cut out for it. The rally would need to pick up the speed and move back above 4400 to give confirmation that it is in force. Failure of that occurring a break to new lows under 4364 would begin to negate upside intentions for now. Wednesday will also give us Amazon and Facebook’s earnings after the close. Also the Fed announcement will come at 2 PM EDT with the Fed chair press conference at 2:30 PM EDT. Once that is all in place I feel that the ES along with the balance of the indexes will be very clear on direction and trend.
July 27, 2021