Thursday’s trade opened up a bit more than last past two days. Ranges were extended as positions were adjusted, altered and made ready for tomorrow’s Fed press conference at 10 AM EDT and also the weekly expiration cycle. The ES was held at 4492 with a few attempts early to break above. The market then continued to trace out the subminute wave 4 correction in play off of the 3398 high from yesterday. Initial support at 4471 did basically hold save for the spike breaks down to Fibonacci support at 4465. The verdict is still out on wave 4 having bottomed so we still need to leave open the potential for additional downside reaching Fibonacci support at 4462 and 4454. Once wave 4 is complete I’m expecting a strong wave 5 advance to begin to break above 4500 and into the myriad of resistance levels all the way up to 4600. There are several time frames to mention — but the Fed press conference begins at 10 AM EDT. Globex could start the push – it is unclear because either direction is reliant on what is said at the Fed press conference. I do feel though, that whichever direction happens it will be fast and volatile in both directions. I would tend to believe that a fair amount of both buy and sell energy has been building from Monday’s high with moments of release for both the buyers and sellers. I don’t think it has relieved all of the pent up energy. This produces the crash up or crash down type of moves. I have added Fibonacci extensions for both the upside and downside. Hopefully the market will not disappoint and give us a muted reaction and move sideways – that would create a huge void of disappointment.
August 26, 2021