Thursday’s trade while challenging was productive towards the current Elliott count and produced solid trading opportunities. The ES did move down and put in an additional low at 4348 during the Globex session. The low did complete the first 5 waves down off of the 4476.50 high and would be labelled wave 1. The bounce off the low has thus far formed 3 waves up, which could be all of wave 2 or just wave ‘a’ of 2. Here’s what needs to happen to clear up the count. If the ES moves up above 4415, it would then complete a small 5 waves up and would be labelled as wave ‘a’ of 2. This would suggest that a ‘b’ wave (a-b-c) decline would be expected and then followed by an additional ‘c’ wave which would trace out 5 waves up and eventually complete above 4415. If the ES does not move up above 4415 first but declines and breaks below 4375 it would leave 3 waves up off the 4348 low and be labelled wave 2, with a wave 3 decline being underway.
August 19, 2021