Monday’s trade was difficult at the beginning, smooth in the middle and awesome at the end. And it followed yesterday’s analysis very cleanly. The ES did continue to trace out a minute wave 4 correction during the globex session reaching the top end of the support zone at 4445 to 4435. Once trading started in the U.S. though it was choppy with a downside slant as the correction continued — support at 4435 was exceeded but not by much with the low coming in at 4432.25 and marking the completion point for the wave 4 correction. That suggests that the ES is now in the beginning stages of the final minute wave 5 up to complete Minor 5, Intermediate 5 and Primary 5. For me the more important levels for completion are between minute, Minor and Intermediate 5th waves. With today’s low marking the end of minute 4 I have now added the next layer of Fibonacci extensions for the path of minute wave 5. I review in detail the clusters of resistance and where the most likely completion points come in. At the moment the most likely zone to complete the advancing sequences comes in at 4495 to 4532. But also what will be important in the structure of the advance. I am counting a 5 wave sequence up — today’s high while completing 5 waves up is likely only wave 1 of 5. Therefore there remains a wave 2 correction (a-b-c), a wave 3 advance, (1,2,3,4,5 – with an extension within the 3rd wave probable), a wave 4 correction (a-b-c) and a final wave 5 advance (1,2,3,4,5).
August 16, 2021