On yesterday’s update I gave both the upside and downside views and the choice of which came down to the market’s reaction to the CPI numbers reported this morning. The market tolerated the number well and the ES ran up 23 points giving thanks to inflation coming in under estimates. The current count continues to reflect the finishing moves of minute wave 3. Although I can count it as complete at today’s 4443 high I noticed after adding channel lines that this morning’s early decline did not break the lower channel. It did hold the level and the ES rallied into the close finishing just shy of the 4443 high which leaves open the potential for an additional thrust higher to complete minute wave 3. Resistance at 4445 is where the upper channel also crosses and may contain the move. Next resistance though comes in at 4454 and the projected path of the upper channel would likely cross between 4454 and 4456. A move into the zone at 4443 to 4456 is likely if the market receives the PPI numbers in the same manner as the CPI. Once the high is in my expectations are for a quick rejection of the high as a minute 4th wave begins to unfold.
August 11, 2021